BEFORE THE STORM
DURING THE STORM
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 1 week ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 00N49W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ.
Gulf Of Mexico
Weak high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf and continues to dominate the basin. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are across the western half of the basin, with combined seas of 3 to 6 ft. The high pressure is supporting generally calm to light breezes across the eastern Gulf, where seas are 1 to 3 ft.
For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the basin. The fresh to strong pulsing winds in the western half of the Gulf will prevail through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the eastern half of the basin. Winds will pulse to strong speeds nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects induced by a thermal trough.
Caribbean Sea
Recent scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern half of the basin, while gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 75W. Combined seas are 5 to 6 ft in the E Caribbean, and 1-4 ft over the W Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and the Windward Passage ahead of a surface trough analyzed along 79W and N of 15N. This trough is the reflection of an upper level trough, which will continue to support persistent heavy rainfall through the week in this region which may increase the chance of flash flooding in low lying areas.
For the forecast, surface ridging N of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. The ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken today, reducing the areal coverage and limiting these winds to the SE Caribbean by this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently affecting eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and adjacent passages will expand in coverage today. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee Cuba, NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage will develop tonight and continue through Sat night. Gentle to moderate trades are expected basin-wide the remainder forecast period, except for fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean.
Atlantic Ocean
Broad high pressure centered near Bermuda dominates the western Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E winds south of the high pressure along the north coast of Hispaniola and near the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate E to SE winds are evident elsewhere south of 25N and west of 55W. Recent altimeter and buoy data show combined seas of 5 to 7 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft combined seas are noted closer into the ridge, north of 25N and west of 55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the southern Bahamas and offshore Hispaniola, ahead of an upper trough approaching from the west.
A weak cold front is analyzed farther east from 31N39W to 26N52W. Winds ahead of this front have diminished to moderate speeds. Seas of 7 to 9 ft continue behind the front. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft are ahead of the front, north of 30N and west of 35W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident between 30W-50W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted over the eastern Atlantic south of 28N and east of 20W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge across the SW Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N, including the approaches to the Windward Passage. The ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken today, while a surface trough develops just N of Hispaniola. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough will support pulsing strong E-SE winds E of the trough and moderate to fresh NE-E winds W of the trough. The trough will also amplify the area of showers and tstms currently affecting the southern Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank. The trough is forecast to become a weak low, which will track NE Fri through Sat, and open back into a trough while exiting the area on Sun.
Posted 1 hour, 28 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Era
